Our Non-Prediction Predictions for 2009

It's that time in the calendar when pundits and commentators rush out their marketing and PR predictions for the coming year. But do all their wise words mean much ... really?

After January who reads these predictions anyway? By the following December is there anyone who remembers them? And how do the rest of us hold the punditocracy accountable for what they said at the start of the year?

But for all that, it is legitimate to comment on trends likely to affect how we communicate to our communities during uncertain times.

So here's my non-prediction predictions for 2009: the factors that will influence how we reach out to one another:

• Firstly these will be the very best of times to communicate. Whatever your status as a communicator, today and tomorrow you will have more tools than ever to engage your audiences. The potential to go beyond traditional information gatekeepers and production processes to get your message out is simply incredible. Social media is the genie which can grant your communications wishes and in the past two years that genie has jumped from the bottle. New media like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube etc may not be around forever but one thing is certain. In the aggregate they are perceptibly changing the way we relate to each other. They have put us well and truly in pioneer territory, and although we may not be able to see the new communications landscape, there's no turning back from here on in.
  

• Paradoxically these will also be the worst of times to communicate. Two issues - the financial crisis and global warming - will dominate our conversations into the foreseeable future. Both are incredibly difficult to understand, harder yet to explain and the solutions to them are a good way off and far from clear. Yet every significant issue you and I wish to raise, may at some point be benchmarked against these two stories because together they define our times.
  

• The future looks set to place a premium on leaders as communicators. In tough times people look to those in authority to provide explanations and point the way ahead. Yet few hierarchical figures in our organisations are good communicators. And even fewer are good at motivating those around them. It is never too late to instill in our managers and others the imperative of communicating well and give them the skills for that difficult but important job.
  

• During the good times our societies are often individualistic and materialistic. But the high fliers and big names of the financial and business worlds have left the scene leaving precious little to show for their much lauded efforts of previous years. In tough times either we act together or we fail to act. Hopefully a sense of community and common purpose will return to our communities where a person's public value is marked by their contribution to the greater good rather than how much they earn. The rush to be seen to be green and corporate social responsibility may have already laid the foundations for this shift to authentic communications and commitment to communities.
  

Only two things are clear from this vantage point. No-one and nothing is certain. And our surest course is to communicate with integrity.

Watch Out For These Things In '09

Watch out for these three marketing issues in the coming year.

• Act and communicate green. People automatically expect organisations to be environmentally conscious. It's now the entry level standard for successful community relationships.
  

• Go high tech to hire staff and to engage people you need to reach. Social media is free, easy to use so why not get on board and begin to use it in 2009.
  

• Times may be tough but think long term and resist the panic urge to slash your marketing budget. Hopefully your organisation will be around long after this financial meltdown so keep talking to your clients and your community.
  

Don't Waste Time Social Networking Unless...

Social networking is a big waste of time ... if that's all you ever do.

At some point your online conversations and relationships have to convert to offline action if you either want to change something or make something happen. Perhaps the real power in online conversations through Facebook, blogs, Twitter etc is to raise awareness of issues and give people sufficient information to motivate them to act in the real world.

It all comes down to persuasion and trust and we think US marketing guru, Seth Godin has got it just about right.

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Is Your Cause Wired for 2009?

It probably happens to you once or twice a year.

A well known charity knocks at your door during its annual fund raising appeal. You make a donation and in return get a receipt. This brief encounter speeds your money off somewhere to help someone somehow. Or you might donate regularly to an aid agency that sends out an annual letter about a sponsored child in the third world.

This remote control philanthropy – where your donation helps someone but you’re unsure who or how - is set to change according to US author Tom Watson. In his book Cause Wired he argues that Web2.0 technology is arming not for profit organizations with “weapons of mass collaboration” and transforming how people support good causes.

Watson believes that social networking applications like Facebook, MySpace, Linkedin etc are evolving from personal promotion into important fund raising, activist and political tools. And it seems Internet users across generations are welcoming the change. Members of Generation Y find that digitally supporting the issues they believe in is a natural extension of living their lives online in public. And Baby Boomers are attracted because the new ways of giving allow them to be personally involved and see results for themselves.

Pioneer charities are beginning to use the power of Web 2.0 to gather, sort and distribute information to donors in a way once reserved for only their very wealthiest supporters. kiva.org is probably Cause Wired’s best example of online fund raising. This digital not for profit allows small scale donors to use their credit cards and laptops to help struggling entrepreneurs in developing countries.

For a $25 upwards you can join with others to loan money to specific individuals in specific countries such as a group of women needing sewing machines for their garment start-up or impoverished taxi drivers urgently after car repairs. Kiva works through established non government organizations (NGOs) and the web to provide the loans, monitor repayments and continually report back to donors through reports and images from the field.

Watson cites other cases where digital philanthropy is achieving equally impressive results but he tempers his enthusiasm. While a campaign on a social networking site like Facebook may raise awareness of an important environmental, human rights or other issue, the actual fund raising figures for many charities still remain modest.

Cause Wired also explores how Web2.0 can empower political organizations and community movements to connect with citizens and consumers. Perhaps Barack Obama’s Presidential election campaign is among the most powerful example of new media technologies helping to win a cause.

While Watson’s 236 page book is enthusiastic about the new possibilities it acknowledges its limits. Online causes can get tens of thousands even millions of people talking. But they still need online leaders. Just like the bricks and mortar world committed individuals who can organize, coordinate, administer and generally keep things moving are still at a premium. And transitioning this digital attention to real world results is still the acid test. Once you have raised awareness you still need to motivate people to take out their cheque books and man the barricades.

Cause Wired is a very good, easy to read book. It is a must for marketers in not for profit and community organizations who want their fund raising efforts to remain competitive in the coming year.